The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) says tropical Pacific and Atlantic Ocean temperatures should remain well above average, continuing to amplify heat stress in the Caribbean by increasing temperatures, humidity and heatwave frequency to rival the warmest conditions on record (2010, 2016 and 2020).
In its forecast for the period August to October 2023, noted the coinciding unusually warm Pacific and Atlantic have opposing effects on Caribbean rainfall and hurricane season activity.
It said for now, the record-warm Atlantic appears predominant in much of the islands, resulting in limited drought concern, whereas the potential for flooding, flash floods and cascading hazards will be high due to copious rains.
According to CariCOF, rainfall totals from August to October are likely to be the usual or higher across the ABC Islands, The Bahamas, the Greater Antilles and in the Leeward Islands. By contrast, Barbados, Belize, the Guianas, Trinidad & Tobago and the Windward Islands are likely to record the usual rainfall amounts or less.
